Forecasts that change depending on who makes them, an MRP whose proposals nobody trusts, an S&OP that feels like an information meeting? I help you structure planning, from demand forecasts to production orders, and turn it into a real decision-making process.
The decision chain
Demand forecast → demand review → supply and capacity review → S&OP decision → master production schedule (MPS) → material requirements planning (MRP) → variance tracking.
Each link has its owner, its rhythm and its data. When one link is unclear, every link after it inherits the problem.
Forecasting, S&OP, MPS, MRP, APS: who does what?
- Forecasting: estimate demand at the right level of detail and over the right horizon.
- S&OP: balance demand and capacity every month, in volume, with senior management.
- MPS: translate the agreed plan into a production plan by product.
- MRP: calculate component requirements and the orders to release.
- APS: a tool that helps forecast and plan under constraints. It supports the process; it does not replace it.
Prerequisites for reliability
An MRP is only as good as its data: bills of materials, supplier lead times, stock, calendars, lot-sizing parameters. That is often where to start (see Master data governance).
The KPIs that matter
Forecast error (WAPE), bias (systematic over- or under-forecasting), service level, stock coverage, adherence to the S&OP calendar. No single KPI is enough: a forecast that is “accurate” but systematically biased is expensive.
Track record
- A major HVAC company (2022-2024): rapid roll-out of a lightweight SaaS forecasting solution (SKU Science).
- Haulotte (2018-2020): Group Supply Chain Manager. Forecasting RACI shared by 3 subsidiaries, DynaSys APS as the single source, S&OP loop. One set of forecasts for the whole group.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between S&OP and MRP?
S&OP decides every month, in volume, between what you want to sell and what you can produce. MRP then calculates, item by item, what to buy and make.
Do you need an APS to run S&OP?
No. S&OP starts with a calendar, roles and shared data. An APS becomes useful when volumes and constraints go beyond what a spreadsheet can handle.
Why are MRP proposals not followed?
Most often because of master data: wrong lead times, outdated bills of materials, unreliable stock. Planners end up correcting by hand, and the system loses credibility.
Let’s talk about your project
I am Jérôme Dumas, an independent supply chain and IT consultant based in Lyon, France, working on assignments across France and Europe.
Do you want to structure your S&OP, make your forecasts more reliable or move a planning project forward? Tell me about your context and challenges, and we will see together whether I can help.